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Why do we need nuclear shelters now? Risks in the Global Situation

JOURNAL

2025.08.29

なぜ今、核シェルターが必要なのか?世界情勢から見るリスク

-Quietly advancing geopolitical change and the nature of "preparedness."

Transnational Conflict Risk and Japan's Reality

The current global situation is entering its most volatile period since the end of the Cold War. Even conflicts that are geographically distant from each other inevitably have cross-border effects in today's globalized world.
Since 2022, military conflicts in Europe have become more protracted as the sphere of influence has expanded, and there have been multiple references to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. In fact, nuclear weapons, which have not been used in decades, are once again on the forefront of international relations: a report published by a US think tank in 2023 noted that "the probability of a small- to medium-scale nuclear conflict is at its highest level in 30 years.
It is necessary to take a sober look at the geopolitical positioning of Japan. Japan is the only country in the world to have suffered a nuclear attack, but at the same time it is surrounded by nuclear powers. According to the official view of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan has a security system called the "nuclear umbrella," but its effectiveness may vary greatly depending on the situation.


Taiwan Contingency and Its Impact on Japan: Simulations Show the Reality

A particular focus in recent years has been tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and during the 2023 Japan-U.S. Joint Exercise, some areas in Japan were included in the contingency alert zone. This is based on an actual risk assessment, not just an exercise assumption.
A study by a private think tank in which I participated indicates that certain areas of Kyushu and Okinawa could be directly affected in the event of a Taiwan contingency. This would not only mean collateral damage in a military conflict, but would also include communication disruptions due to electronic warfare and economic disruption due to supply chain disruptions.
According to a 2024 U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report, U.S. military bases in Japan are expected to play an important role in the event of a Taiwan contingency, which at the same time suggests that Japan itself could be a target. Even in the event of a third-country conflict, Japan cannot remain in a completely safe zone.


The most important function of a nuclear shelter - the absolute necessity of a ventilation system

When we think of nuclear shelters, we tend to focus on sturdy walls and explosion-proof doors, but in fact the most important function is air management: a study published by the Swiss Nuclear Safety Agency in 2018 clearly states that "the biggest factor determining the survivability of a nuclear shelter is the robustness of the ventilation system."
In the event of a nuclear attack or military conflict, risk factors such as radioactive materials, biological warfare agents, and chemical agents are dispersed into the atmosphere. They are invisible and cannot be prevented by ordinary masks; the core of an advanced ventilation system such as the AT-Barrier lies in its ability to "reliably remove risk factors from the outside air. Of particular note is the multi-layer filtering system in the AT-Barrier. It performs according to military standards and is capable of trapping even the smallest radioactive particles and viruses.



Multipolar World and Proliferation of Nuclear Risks

Unlike the bipolar structure of the Cold War era, today we live in a multipolar world with multiple spheres of power intricately intertwined. Looking back on history, it is said that such a multipolar international order is generally prone to instability.
Tensions between India and Pakistan, nuclear development moves in the Middle East region, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula - all of these factors have the potential to affect Japan directly or indirectly. In fact, since 2022, there has been a sharp increase in North Korea's ballistic missile tests, with some missiles landing within Japan's exclusive economic zone.
Statistics from the past five years show that the number of armed conflicts in the world is on the rise, and of particular concern is the increasing number of "low-intensity conflicts" escalating into "high-intensity conflicts. This gradual escalation of tensions can sometimes develop into uncontrollable situations beyond the intentions of the parties involved.



Importance of AT barrier to ensure "safe breathing

The most important factor that determines the performance of nuclear shelters is the ventilation system. The AT Barrier, in particular, is designed not as a mere filter but as "a stable air supply system that is not affected by the external environment.
While most shelters have ventilation systems, the AT Barrier is unique in the following ways

1Sustainability in the event of power loss:
It will continue to operate with its built-in battery or hand-cranked generator even in the event of a power outage, so it can function even in the event of an infrastructure collapse.

2. Positive pressure maintenance function:
By keeping the inside of the shelter at a higher atmospheric pressure than the outside at all times, it physically prevents harmful substances from entering through gaps.

3. Multi-step filtering:
Multi-layer filtering with cyclone separator, pre-filter, HEPA filter, and chemical filter to handle any threat.



Securing the "time and space" of shelter

The term "nuclear shelter" may seem extreme to some, but it essentially means securing "a space where you can protect your family no matter what happens. In Switzerland, the law requires all citizens to be housed in shelters, and public shelters are being developed in Finland.
Although legal arrangements are not yet in place in Japan, an increasing number of people are considering the installation of shelters for preparedness on a personal level. What is important is that a shelter is not merely a "place of refuge" but provides "time and space to make decisions. The significance of having a safe space where one can make calm decisions under emergency conditions is immeasurable.


Securing the power supply for ventilation systems - an advanced approach to AT-barriers

Even with a high-performance ventilation system, if the power supply is disrupted, it becomes just another "box. This is a particularly serious problem in times of conflict. In the early stages of a military attack, the power infrastructure is often the first target.
One of the reasons why AT Barrier is attracting attention is this "power supply redundancy. It has three power supply systems: a regular commercial power source, an external battery connection, and a hand-cranked generator.



Changing International Situation and the Need for "Preparedness

Looking back at the changes in international relations over the past decade, we see a series of unpredictable events coming to pass: the pandemic of 2020, the outbreak of conflict in Europe in 2022, and the rapid deterioration of the situation in the Middle East, all of which were thought to be "unlikely" to happen.
In fact, from the perspective of international politics, the possibility of a "Great Power Conflict" has once again become the subject of academic debate. This is a concept once thought to be a thing of the past since the end of the Cold War.
The Ministry of Defense's 2023 Defense White Paper also clearly states that "the security environment around Japan is becoming increasingly severe," indicating that the Japanese government is aware of the changing situation.



The Modern Meaning of "Be Prepared and You'll Never Have to Worry

The proverb, "Be prepared and you will be safe," is of great importance in today's international situation. A nuclear shelter is not so much an option to "prepare for war" as it is an option to "ensure the safety of your family no matter what happens.
Ventilation systems such as AT-barriers continue to support life as the "lungs" of the shelter. The design concept that allows human power to continue to operate even when the power supply is cut off is a crystallization of wisdom born from Japan's experience with disasters.
Finally, I want to emphasize that shelters and ventilation systems should be chosen out of love, not out of "fear". We want to bring safe air to our loved ones - that desire is the value that will never change in any international situation.